Comment: “I expect this will not lead to a full-fledged war” – Rene Lefort

These comments from the long-time Horn Analyst, Rene Lefort. Always worth listening to.

“Too optimist or naïve, I expect that the military confrontation launched by Addis, officially in response to Tigrean attacks in Mekele and other places, will not lead to a full-fledged war. Both sides have too much to lose. The impact on the whole country would be devastating.

“Badme memory is too enduring. So the possibility of a negotiation soon between both parties and through a mediation, leaving most of their preconditions without losing face, under the guise of “saving peace”, “Ethiopia’ unity”, “international pressures”, etc.
“What could derail this forecast are the Amhara hardliners (Wolkait, Raya, etc.) and above all Issayas. He is certainly misinformed, as in any totalitarian system. He could be willing to take this occasion to definitely get rid of the TPLF. But the opposite is also possible.”

8 comments

  1. What can we say about TPLF?
    Simply evil!!!
    PM Abiy can not afford 2nd mistake after he ignored prof. Mesfin best advice. There is no other option but to get rid off TPLF. They will leave Mekele for somewhere and use their billions of dollar they robbed the country to continue destablising Ethiopia. ONEG SHENE is an other evil that has to be eliminated.

    1. Bedele you are somewhat conflating a number of issues. Yes TPLF did neglect the nations and largely profited from their oligarchy. But they left years ago and are now focusing on building and opening Tigray to major investment and dismantling the Derg bureaucracy that is till in place everywhere in the country. Dr Abiy promised a new agenda of reforms, liberalisations and privatisations. Instead, he’s let his people run the country’s economy further into the ground through total incompetence. I still have faith in his intentions but when will this government understand: no economy = no peace; they spend their time issuing nonsense regulations that achieve nothing except economic instability while wasting time on chasing TPLF. He wasted alot of time and now has NO mandate since 5 October!

  2. Too optimist for sure. Way too many have died and are dying already.

    By thebway, saying Issayas is “misinformed” is like saying the mossad was misinformed about the RPM of Iranian centrifuges, or to put it simplisticly, like saying the cashier was misinformed about money would exchange hands in a transaction.

  3. TPLF is a bunch of criminals, responsible for all
    Atrocities and embezzlement of national resources right from the beginning.
    At this time they stabbed back the national army and looted armaments so as to fight for the statuesque to regain back their power

  4. What do we loose from being united? Like United states? Think about it Eritrea, Ethiopia, Tegri! Respect and love each other or fight an destroy each other and be the poorest country in the world. The choice is yours.

    1. Your comment the way you listed “Eritrea, Ethiopia, Tigray” confuses me. Either you think Eritrea is part of Ethiopia or you think Tigray is another Country.
      “United” is what you need for your country. Keep Eritrea out of this ambition. Abiy should not listen to Isaias Afwerki.
      Three things that region should get rid of: TPLF, Isaias Afwerki, and Abiy’s evil ambitions.

  5. Stop the war. War is not a solution! Come up with agreement give them what they need and just let them stay where they are. Bring your military to Tigray and control them. Build schools and bridge 🌉 not destroying it.. nidihirit besmeam

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