Eritrea’s vulnerability to Covid19 compared to other African countries

Eritrea is the fifth most vulnerable country in East Africa.

It ranks among the top 10 most vulnerable countries for household crowding and sanitation, health systems strength, and population over 65.

Eritrea has limited health capacity, with only 12 hospital beds per 10,000 people, and 6.3 health care workers (doctors, nurses, midwives) per 10,000 people — making public health and social distancing measures critical.

Source: Precision for Covid

Africa COVID-19 Community Vulnerability Index

The index informs COVID-19 planning and response, especially among Africa’s most vulnerable regions—those that will struggle to weather a COVID-19 outbreak and its health, economic and social impacts without support. The index assesses seven kinds of vulnerability for 751 regions in 48 countries. The overall index (CCVI) is made up of seven themes: age; epidemiological factors; fragility; strength of health systems; population density; socioeconomic factors; and access to transportation and housing.

Eritrea is the fifth most vulnerable country in East Africa. It ranks among the top 10 most vulnerable countries for household crowding and sanitation, health systems strength, and population over 65. Eritrea has limited health capacity, with only 12 hospital beds per 10,000 people, and 6.3 health care workers (doctors, nurses, midwives) per 10,000 people — making public health and social distancing measures critical.


Within-Eritrea highlights

The northern region is consistently more vulnerable than the southern region, with neighbouring regions Anseba and Debub having the greatest overall vulnerability to COVID-19. Anseba has a strong health care system, but due to high population density and high food insecurity, the overall vulnerability is high. The capital, Asmara, lies in the Maekel region which has overall low vulnerability but has high population density and higher number of people over the age of 65 than other regions in the country.

Screenshot 2020-07-14 at 06.35.10

In this table each region’s vulnerability is expressed relative to other regions in Eritrea. Where available, it also shows mobility data, with greater reductions suggesting more social distancing, relative to a pre-pandemic baseline. The final column shows what percentage of people who get infected are expected to require acute care, based on the age and gender distribution of the region’s population.

Eritrea: regional metrics of vulnerability, mobility and acute IHR

Screenshot 2020-07-14 at 06.35.47

REGION

POPULATION

OVERALL CCVI INDEX

AGE

EPIDE-MIOLOGICAL

FRAGILITY

HEALTH SYSTEM

POPULATION DENSITY

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

TRANSPORT AVAILABILITY

ACUTE IHR

MOBILITY
Anseba 518000
0.4
0.6
0.4
0
0.4
0.4
0.6
1.0
1.00
Debub 908000
1.0
1.0
0
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.4
0.4
1.00
Debubawi Keyih Bahri 114000
0
0
1.0
1.0
0.2
0
0.2
0.2
0.99
Gash Barka 900000
0.6
0.4
0.8
0.2
0.6
0.2
1.0
0.6
1.00
Maekel 639000
0.2
0.8
0.2
0.4
0
1.0
0
0
1.00
Semenawi Keyih Bahri 1111000
0.8
0.2
0.6
0.6
1.0
0.6
0.8
0.8
1.00

Hospitalization and infection fatality rates

Age is the most critical risk factor for poor outcomes from an infection with COVID-19. This shows what percentage of those infected in each region will require acute hospital care or ICU care, and what percentage will die. The two hospitalization rates are based on the gender/age demographics of the region alone, whereas the fatality rate additionally takes into account comorbidities and health system capacity in the country (see Methods).

Percentage of population infected: 10 %
REGION

ACUTE RATE

ICU RATE

FATALITY RATE

ACUTE NUMBER ICU NUMBER FATALITY NUMBER
Anseba 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 517 135 261
Debub 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 911 238 461
Debubawi Keyih Bahri 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 112 29 56
Gash Barka 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 897 234 452
Maekel 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 638 166 322
Semenawi Keyih Bahri 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 1108 289 559
The hospitalization rates shown here are based on French outcomes (Salje et al., 2020, Science). An adjustment for health system capacity and comorbidities could be made for IFR only (see Methods). The rates also assume that everyone is equally likely to be infected, so does not take into account lockdowns or shielding. Nonetheless, the rates provide a useful comparison in terms of the demographic risk each region is under.

 

One comment

  1. I think you are wrong in this article. Eritrea it not vulnerable in the health care. In the Human rights so bad but in the health care if is not the 1st me be one of the 1st ten in the healthy care.

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