Is the Tigray government about to mount a major offensive?

A website – Zegabi – has posted an article claiming that the Tigray Defence Forces have launched an offensive against Eritrea. [See below]

I am not confirming what they say, but have used their post as an opportunity to make the following points.

1) The Tigrayans are under siege and whatever resources they have are diminishing. Hunger and even famine are rife. Being blockaded cannot be endured indefinitely.
2) The world is presently distracted by the war in Ukraine.
3) It is clear that in 2022 the Tigray leadership will not be welcome in Addis and historically any alliance with the Oromo has not worked. This is mainly because there are many Oromo factions and many of the Oromo leaders do not fully trust the Tigrayan leadership. They worry that past mistakes will be repeated, when they were poorly treated by the TPLF.
4) The Tigrayans need to clear the border to Sudan-Humera, Omhajer etc. Because they cannot afford to have Eritrean troops holding key positions in western Tigray they need to confront them. The TDF would also love to give Isaias a bloody nose.
5) The Eritrean regime will complain loudly about their territory being invaded. Nobody will give them the time of day because the Eritrea government was clearly involvement in the planning and execution of the Tigray war; the war crimes they committed in Tigray, and last but not least their pariah status after being the only African state in the UN General Assembly to vote against the resolution condemning Putin’s invasion of  Ukraine.
6) It therefore looks likely that the TDF will push North-West and West. Once it has reached the border with Sudan it will be easier to access humanitarian assistance.
7) It is important in this process that sanctions be imposed against President Isaias to prevent him from destabilising Eastern Sudan.


TPLF launches wide-ranging offensive against Eritrea

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) on Monday launched a wide-ranging offensive against the neighboring Eritrea after months of military preparation.

TPLF is said to have mobilized about half a million troops to the new front in an attempt to regain the disputed Bademe and Shiraro districts from Eritrea.

Witnesses told that the fighting has continued amid bombardments of heavy weapons from both sides.

Back in 2000, the Ethio-Eritrean Border Commission demarcated the disputed Bademe and Shiraro districts as parts of Eritrea.

TPLF, as the dominant party of Ethiopia, did not accept the commission’s decision which was regarded as “final and binding.”

The new fighting with Eritrea comes as thousands of people have been displaced from Tigray to the Amhara region, fleeing hunger in their war-hit region.

The displaced people are told to stay in their designated camps to avoid entrance of TPLF insurgents in the region and for other security reasons.

Meanwhile, fighting between the Amhara Popular Force otherwise known as ‘Fano’ and the regional special force has continued for the second day in Mota town with reports of seven fatalities.

The fighting began after the regional force killed Mezgebu Walelegn, one of the leaders of the popular force. The Fano fighter killed six members of the government force in a counter offensive.

Fano Mezegebu was shot and wounded after he refused to stop the graduation of new Fano fighters. He, however, died hours after the shooting in a hospital.

The Fano forces are currently fighting the regional security forces from the nearby forests.


One comment

  1. Time is clearly against TDF. Abiy and Esayas will continue to block Tigray until TDF surrender forced by starvation. They are succeeding in starving Tigray. The fact that Tigray youth are flocking to Amhara region in search of food today sums up the level of desperation in Tigray. TDF withdrawal from capturing Finfinnee was the worst technical decision, notwithstanding not getting the full support of Oromo nationalists, but did get OLA agreement. The second mistake of ODF is expecting international community delivering food by putting pressure on Abiy and trusting the US envoy. The waiting gave Abiy and Esayas the badly time they needed to reorganize while the opposite happened to TDF and the people of Tigray. TDF should have put all their forces to open western Tigray paying all sacrifices or even open full scale war against Eritrean regime and overthrow Esayas. They did little on both fronts and wasted crucial momentum and exposed their people to starvation. Now they still don’t have many options —pick one of the options or surrender to Abiy and Esayas. Unfortunate but that’s what I see going forward.

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